The European Union is entering a crucial period where artificial intelligence (AI) plays a key role in economic stability and political power. Europe has relied on American and, increasingly, Chinese companies for cloud computing, digital platforms, semiconductor supply chains, and advanced AI models. This reliance leaves the EU vulnerable in essential areas of its digital economy. As geopolitical tensions rise, especially the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing, EU leaders are beginning to see technology policy not just as a market issue but as a matter of strategic independence and sovereignty (1).
Why AI Sovereignty Matters for Europe
Our economy, politics, and security heavily rely on technology. The US and China argue that leadership in AI enhances their military capabilities and intelligence, thereby increasing their influence on the global stage. The US dominates in software, cloud services, and advanced AI models, while China produces many telecommunications tools, raw materials, and AI systems for surveillance, smart cities, and government functions. This creates risks for Europe, as supply chains may be disrupted, foreign regulations can be enforced, and external companies or governments may influence standards, data access, or prices (1). Such factors restrict Europe's policy options. Control over digital networks (including AI), data flows, and communication infrastructure grants political power, as evidenced in the Ukraine conflict and discussions about expanding the EU (2). If Europe continues to depend on external sources for vital components such as chips, cloud services, AI models, and data, it risks merely regulating technologies that are developed and controlled elsewhere.
The EU has a clear strategy for AI sovereignty that includes regulations, industrial initiatives, and efforts to promote the use of AI. The AI Act and the concept of "trustworthy AI" establish a risk-based approach emphasising transparency, human oversight, and the protection of fundamental rights (2). The aim is to create a single market for safe AI products. Additionally, the EU seeks to share its values globally, expecting international companies to adhere to its rules, building on its successful data protection laws, often described as the “Brussels Effect” (1). This approach aims to extend EU standards beyond Europe. However, regulations alone won't make Europe independent in technology. Still, the European Commission recognises a gap between rules and local capabilities, prompting the launch of the AI Continent Action Plan and the Apply AI Strategy (3). These initiatives aim to boost AI adoption and strengthen Europe's industry, focusing on sectors where Europe excels, such as health, transportation, manufacturing, and climate. They also support small and medium-sized enterprises and invest in infrastructure, including "AI factories" connected to Europe’s computing network and "Data Labs" to share quality datasets across countries and sectors.
From Big Promises to Real Outcomes?
Corporate behaviour reveals both the goals and the limits of sovereignty. Recent surveys show many European companies want "sovereign AI" solutions. These solutions keep data in Europe, follow EU rules, and reduce exposure to foreign laws. Demand is high across regulated sectors such as finance, health, and public services (4). Control over data and systems in these sectors is vital to manage legal risks and maintain public trust. However, most companies do not plan to stop working with non-European suppliers. They want to use American companies for new technology, only enforcing sovereign solutions for the most sensitive tasks. This shows a model of "managed interdependence," not complete self-sufficiency. The plan focuses on gaining control at key points. These include data spaces, powerful computing, open-source European models, and government buying (1). The goal is to stop dependence from becoming a significant risk. Supporting open-source European AI models for public services, backed by steady government demand, aims to build local innovation while simultaneously reducing reliance on foreign proprietary systems.
What's Next?
Europe wants to be independent in AI technology. The EU is no longer focused solely on the ethics of AI; it now sees AI as an essential source of power (5). The EU is investing in infrastructure and developing tools to support this goal. However, Europe still lacks sufficient private investment, skilled workers, and industrial capacity. American and Chinese companies still control key parts of the AI market, highlighting Europe’s continued dependence. Whether current plans will lead to real results depends on how well they are carried out. The EU needs to build strong companies and reasonable rules to handle tough competition from major countries. AI is both a sign and part of Europe’s effort to be more independent, and it will depend on how well the EU manages its relationships with other countries in a world led by AI.